Outset

It was a remarkable altercation between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last Friday:

Zelenskyy & Trump in the Oval Office

We know that the mineral deal was already presented to him for signature in Kiev; he was supposed to sign immediately, without even being able to discuss it with his team. And the deal offered no military security guarantees; it was essentially just: "You Ukrainians let us take the stuff."

He initially rejected the signature and perhaps later decided not to sign at all.

Communcation challenge

But then he faced the problem: How can I explain my position to the world — especially with such a sensitive decision?

Solution: Tell Trump that he wants to sign, but personally in the White House. And then he can turn it into a PR event and present himself to the press as a peacemaker. Of course, Trump wouldn't pass that up.

The Meeting

So, Zelenskyy enters the short conversation, which was originally only planned as a photo opportunity, with a clear agenda. He is confrontational early on, insults Putin, and presents Trump with a photo gallery of tortured soldiers.

Even afterward, he continues: He shakes his head, contradicts Trump, and interrupts him. He does not want to be nice.

In the end, Zelenskyy does not appear sad or surprised at all (which one would expect in the case of an unintended scandal), but rather in a positive mood: He even gives a thumbs-up gesture to someone else in the room.

That the mineral deal really offers nothing militarily, and that Trump apparently hasn't thought about it, is evident:

• In response to a reporter's question, Trump makes it clear that France will send soldiers, the UK will send soldiers—and from the USA, there will be "workers" present.
• In another question, Trump states that security guarantees are secondary. The mineral deal is much more important. (As if extracting minerals should be more difficult than securing peace...)
• Furthermore, Trump emphasizes that the Europeans only loaned their money, while the Americans made gifts. This sets the framework for why the mineral deal can be exploitative. The profits should flow into a pot that the USA could draw from.

Zelenskyy's options

Zelenskyy could have played along and hoped that something would come out of further negotiations for Ukraine.

However, that would have been a risk, perhaps too great from his perspective. Because the following scenario threatens:

• Pseudo-peace, which no Ukrainian trusts
• The border must then be completely opened (meaning men can leave too)
• They then flee in droves to their wives and children in Europe
• Economic collapse
• After two years, Putin rolls in, and nothing stops him, neither protective powers nor Ukrainian men

Better off now?

But doesn't Zelenskyy look much worse off now, without the USA and their military aid?

From his perspective, it might have been a similar move to February 2022. Back then, it was also said from all sides that no one would help militarily. Nevertheless, the Ukrainians resisted, and Western military experts tirelessly emphasized how hopeless it was. We know the rest of the story.

Thinking of a scenario with further US aid only makes sense if that was still realistic at all. Perhaps Zelenskyy has already written that off, based on what he was signaled in recent days regarding the mineral deal and Trump's next steps.

And now he has bet everything on Europe.

And from there, he is certainly receiving far more support than criticism. There seems to be a wake-up effect. Who knows how far that will carry.